Economic Indicators 2019 ( Source FocusEconomics)

Dominican Rep. Economic Outlook

November 5, 2019

The economy gained steam in the third quarter according to preliminary data. While a sectoral breakdown is still outstanding, recent monetary easing was likely a key driver, as it boosted credit growth and should have buttressed domestic activity. This comes after a marked slowdown in the second quarter on the back of a less favourable external environment and domestic political uncertainty due to the primaries.

Dominican Republic Economic Growth

Economic activity is set to ease next year on slower momentum in the U.S.—the key source of remittances, tourist arrivals and exports. However, growth will continue to compare favorably to regional peers. Volatile energy prices, and a possible stronger-than-expected U.S. slowdown are the main downside risks. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy expanding 4.6% in 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 4.4% in 2021.

Dominican Republic Economy Data

  2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Population (million) 9.8 9.9 10.0 10.1 10.2
GDP per capita (USD) 6,410 6,805 7,139 7,520 7,869
GDP (USD bn) 62.7 67.3 71.2 75.8 80.0
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) 4.9 7.1 6.9 6.7 4.7
Consumption (annual variation in %) 2.6 5.1 6.5 5.5 3.9
Investment (annual variation in %) -2.5 9.3 18.9 12.3 -0.3
Industrial Production (annual variation in %) 9.8 14.8 8.5 -   -  
Unemployment Rate -   -   -   -   -  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -4.0 -3.7 -0.3 -2.9 -3.3
Public Debt (% of GDP) 37.0 36.0 35.1 36.9 38.9
Money (annual variation in %) 10.7 10.2 11.6 10.0 10.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop) 3.9 1.6 2.3 1.7 4.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %) 4.8 3.0 0.8 1.6 3.3
Policy Interest Rate (%) 6.25 6.25 5.00 5.50 5.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD) 42.69 44.28 45.53 46.34 47.80
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop) 41.71 43.48 44.98 45.93 47.31
Current Account (% of GDP) -4.1 -3.2 -1.8 -1.1 -0.2
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -2.6 -2.2 -1.3 -0.8 -0.1
Trade Balance (USD billion) -7.4 -7.4 -7.5 -7.6 -7.6
Exports (USD billion) 9.4 9.9 9.4 9.8 10.1
Imports (USD billion) 16.8 17.3 16.9 17.4 17.7
Exports (annual variation in %) 5.5 5.0 -4.6 4.2 3.0
Imports (annual variation in %) -4.8 2.8 -2.1 2.9 1.9
International Reserves (USD) 4.7 4.9 5.3 6.0 6.8
External Debt (% of GDP) 38.2 39.1 37.4 37.0 37.2